US president Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his swift imposition of steep trade tariffs may have rattled global markets and strained diplomatic ties, but the immediate impact on transatlantic business travel has so far been muted. Nevertheless, a prevailing sense of caution – already present among some corporates – has deepened since his return to Washington.
While the Trump administration’s policies have already disrupted inbound travel through new immigration hurdles, the direct effect on corporate travel remains less clear. If anything, travel industry observers say the tariffs have reinforced a risk-averse mindset among companies already wary of geopolitical and economic volatility.
Few travel suppliers or organisations contacted by BTN Europe last week could draw definitive conclusions on the impact of the tariffs, though most noted heightened monitoring of the situation.
Neither OAG or Cirium reported any significant movement in transatlantic air travel demand or capacity, with the latter declaring no notable change in airlines’ forward schedules between Europe and the US. Both airline analytics companies are tracking a range of metrics.
Travel management companies painted a similar picture. BCD Travel said it was too early to offer a fact-based assessment and preferred not to speculate. TravelPerk and Gray Dawes reported no material changes in transatlantic travel patterns, while CWT said its data showed no significant changes in booking patterns at this stage.
“While it's premature to draw definitive conclusions, the impact of US foreign policy on transatlantic travel has the potential to generate behavioural and volume shifts in either direction,” said Richard Johnson, VP, solutions group, CWT.
Johnson also noted that there is a “growing emphasis on cost controls, possibly in anticipation of tariffs or even a recession, which could further influence travel and business strategies”.
Those cost constraints may already be evident in airline performance. Delta Air Lines, for example, reported moderated business travel growth through Q1 last week. After a strong start to the year, momentum slowed in February and March, which Delta attributed to waning corporate confidence.
Virgin Atlantic, which reported a 2024 profit after years of losses, also flagged signs of softening US demand at the end of March, citing a natural reaction to general consumer uncertainty.
That uncertainty was echoed during a recent buyer-only BTN Communities call. Some travel managers cited tighter budgets and the prioritisation of essential, client-facing trips in Q1, while one participant reported the outright cancellation of non-critical travel, meetings and events.
Not all companies are hitting the brakes, however. Of the roughly 20 buyers on the call – mostly from North America – several said their programmes remained largely unchanged. Others still were pragmatic, pointing to previous events that have had notable implications for the travel industry. The next few months could be turbulent, they posited, but haven’t we been here before and come out the other side?
A Business Travel News flash survey conducted on 3-4 April illustrated this divide. Forty-one per cent of 145 travel buyer respondents said that negative economic signals, including tariffs, stock market volatility, and declining consumer confidence, were having a significant or very significant impact on their companies' travel activities. Conversely, 38 per cent reported little to no impact, and 22 per cent said it was having some impact. Again, this was a largely North America-based cohort.
In Europe, travel buyers are already bracing for ripple effects. Research conducted in February by BTN Europe and the Business Travel Show found that 48 per cent of the 115 buyers surveyed expect travel to the US to become more expensive in 2025, while 35 per cent believe it will become “more difficult” to travel to/from the US.
The meetings and events sector is also showing signs of strain. A March survey from Cvent and BTN’s parent company, Northstar Travel Media, found that 63 per cent of EMEA-based planners are now less inclined to consider the US as a destination when arranging events, citing concerns around Trump’s presidency. Whether this sentiment will translate into tangible shifts in sourcing patterns remains to be seen.
What is already clear is that inbound travel to the US is declining, and some would-be leisure visitors are looking at alternative destinations. The US National Travel and Tourism Office reported an 11.6 per cent year-on-year drop in overseas arrivals (excluding Canada and Mexico) for March, with a 3.3 per cent decline recorded across the first quarter. Tourism Economics, which had initially forecast 9 per cent growth in international arrivals to the US for 2025, revised its outlook in December to a 9.4 per cent decline.
For many corporate travel managers, the most pressing concern isn’t necessarily trade tariffs or their impact on travel programmes – it’s the uncertainty around US entry procedures. Multiple media reports have highlighted instances of international travellers being detained or turned back since the start of the second Trump presidency, and several European goverments have published alerts warning citizens to be aware of more stringent controls.
BT4Europe, the network of European business travel associations, said most respondents to an April poll it conducted among travel managers and travellers cited short-term travel to the US as a “matter of concern,” driven primarily by the unpredictability of entry requirements.
Similarly, German association VDR issued a two-page advisory in early April focused on navigating the increasingly complex US border environment. Neither organisation reported noticeable changes in demand for transatlantic travel, but both highlighted procedural anxiety as a rising issue.
• Coming soon: How shifting US immigration procedures are impacting corporate travel programmes