Demand for international rail travel from the UK is expected to triple over the next 15 years, increasing from 11 million to 35 million passengers per year should additional capacity be introduced, according to new research.
The study, commissioned by UK high-speed rail operator London St Pancras, suggests that expected growth and competition on the high-speed HS1 line could lead to fare reductions of up to 30 per cent.
Modelling also indicates that up to 18 additional daily services could run on existing routes, while demand could support the launch of trains to as many as five new destinations across western Europe, according to London St. Pancras Highspeed.
The report comes after the high-speed rail operator last week revealed a package of financial incentives to encourage new and existing operators to increase services on the HS1 line, which runs from St. Pancras station to the Channel Tunnel.
The line is currently operating at 50 per cent capacity, with Eurostar as the sole operator, however a recent feasibility report by Office of Rail and Road (ORR), which regulates the UK’s railways, provided "a green signal" for increased competition on the cross-Channel route. Trenitalia, this week, became the latest operator to express an interest in launching services between London and Paris, following Richard Branson’s Virgin Group and start-up Gemini Trains.
Train operators who qualify for the HS1 incentive will be entitled to discounts on the Investment Recovery Charge, which is paid to run services on the line, plus an incentive to grow passenger volumes, according to the rail operator.
Additionally, there are plans to more than double international passenger capacity at St. Pancras station to nearly 5,000 passengers per hour to accommodate the projected growth.
A recently-signed agreement with Eurotunnel, which runs the Channel Tunnel, is also expected to reduce journey times, improve timetable coordination and further incentivise more services and routes.
Robert Sinclair, CEO of London St. Pancras Highspeed, said: “This report points to the biggest transformation in international high-speed rail travel in a generation. Passengers are increasingly choosing rail over air for climate reasons and because they like the convenience and comfort of direct city centre to city centre travel.”
He added: “With collective determination and action, we can triple passenger numbers, lower fares, and unlock new destinations across Europe. Our growth incentive is a catalyst to help make this vision a reality by supporting operators to introduce new services faster, shaping an exciting future for international rail.”